PX is the leading raw material in the whole polyester industry，The change of its industry has a particularly important impact on the whole specific industry. to formally enter the development of China’s self-sufficiency in Xylene Road Research.
First, take a look at the global PX supply and demand situation. In the global domain China, South Korea, India, Japan and the United States ranked the top five. ,as the world’s largest producer,India is also the greatest demand lies. Due to domestic demand outstripping supply, nearly 60% of the annual demand needs to rely on With imports from neighboring countries such as South Korea and Japan. In 2018, China’s PX output was only 10.31 million tons, and its import volume was as high as 15.63 million tons, in other words, it needs to import more than 1 million tons of PX every month.
Under the guidance of market gap and profit attraction to give policy support the expansion of Para xylene production capacity in China entered a new era in 2005For example Hengli Petrochemical in Dalian, Shenghong Petrochemical in Lianyungang, Jiangsu In 2019, the new PX production capacity of 4.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical Company, Hongrun Petrochemical Company, which was put into operation in August, and Hainan Refining and Chemical Phase II, which was put into operation in October, have all realized commercial operation. At the same time, in the fourth quarter, there is a formatted launch, and there is a possibility of launch. It is estimated that the new production capacity will reach 10.3 million tons in the year, an increase of 53% over the same period last year. From 2020 to 2022, there will still be 25 million tons, and new capacity will be put into the market one after another.
Against the backdrop of a domestic supply spurt China’s PX supply and demand outlook will change significantly. With the rapid expansion of China’s PX production capacity, the future supply and demand pattern in Northeast Asia will gradually turn into surplus, and in the case of appropriate cost distance and profit, it can also be exported to countries with demand gap. Trade relations with southeast Asia ，There is also the possibility of one-way exports turning into cross-trade
From the perspective of global supply and demand pattern, China is the world’s largest source of supply, but also the largest consumer. China’s annual production capacity was 52.29 million tons, accounting for more than half of the world’s total. From the perspective of global trade flows, China’s total import volume is 760 thousand tons, mainly from Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea.
From the domestic supply situation, the profit trend is the key indicator of domestic PT supply. In 2011, PHP entered the capacity expansion, resulting in a concentrated outbreak of production capacity, which led to a substantial recovery of the profit level of PDA. Under the competitive situation, the long-term profit trend tends to be deficit, some backward production capacity has been eliminated, and supply and demand tend to be tight balance.PT opens in 2017, PK entered the stage of improving the value of prosperity. In 2019, PTA’s profit level once climbed to 1700 yuan per ton.PK ushered in a new wave of production peak.
Impacted by environmental upgrade Terminal, accelerate polyester, capacity expansion The concentration of polyester industry has been greatly improved, which is the main trend of polyester industry in recent two years. Accompanied by the expansion, polyester expansion, competition intensified, so that the level of profitability has declined significantly, the future polyester production capacity tends to be rational.
As the industrial chain expansion is not synchronized, the strong raw materials stage compressed the polyester plant profit level, polyester plant profit loss phenomenon during the year. From the perspective of future trends, polyester supply growth slowdown in the future, as well as process constraints and lower production costs are conducive to the expansion of polyester profits. However, Sino-US trade frictions will affect the market to a certain extent. China’s textile processing tariffs will directly affect China’s garment exports to the United States, although there are signs of improvement in the recent Sino US trade negotiations. Sino-US relations China’s imposition of tariffs on textiles has a direct impact on China’s garment exports to the United States. Although there are effective signs in the recent Sino-US trade negotiations, the EU’s textiles and specific trade barriers against China have gradually increased in recent years, and the trend is very obvious. This will directly affect China’s export.
Post time: Aug-21-2020